| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | L | Wisconsin | 0-17 | 1558.5 | -13.5 | 1545.0 | 22.9% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Rutgers | 17-45 | 1545.0 | -47.4 | 1497.6 | 23.1% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | UNLV | 38-41 | 1499.1 | -14.3 | 1484.8 | 33.6% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Lindenwood | 38-0 | 1484.8 | +46.8 | 1531.6 | 90.6% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Northern Illinois | 25-14 | 1531.6 | +30.7 | 1562.3 | 59.0% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Akron | 20-7 | 1562.3 | -12.1 | 1550.2 | 86.0% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Eastern Michigan | 44-30 | 1550.2 | -18.6 | 1531.6 | 80.6% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Western Michigan | 26-17 | 1531.6 | +25.2 | 1556.8 | 45.3% |
| 12 | Nov 4 2025 | L | Ohio | 20-24 | 1552.1 | +8.3 | 1560.4 | 43.8% |
| 13 | Nov 12 2025 | L | Toledo | 3-24 | 1560.4 | -26.4 | 1534.0 | 33.3% |
| 14 | Nov 19 2025 | W | Buffalo | 37-20 | 1534.0 | +26.5 | 1560.5 | 67.6% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Ball State | 45-24 | 1560.5 | +2.4 | 1562.9 | 86.3% |
| 16 | Dec 6 2025 | L | Western Michigan | 13-23 | 1562.9 | -15.8 | 1547.1 | 51.2% |
| 19 | Dec 27 2025 | L | Fresno State | 3-18 | 1555.8 | -21.9 | 1533.9 | 46.9% |